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WRGPT - A moment of madness, saved by ballsy play on the turn - oldbloke's mutterings
June 2nd, 2009
06:03 pm
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WRGPT - A moment of madness, saved by ballsy play on the turn
Table h1, Hand 280, Day 212
Ante is 10k, blinds 30k and 60k
I have a little under 900k, the table average being around 750k
I'm dealt A/4, and even though I'm under the gun, I go mad at the sight of the first ace I've seen for about a month and raise it another 90k
Obviously, this was stupid.
Only 1 guy calls, though. But he'll have position on me.
470k in the pot, and the flop comes K3K, none in either of my suits.
I check, preparing to fold and lose the money, but he checks behind.
Hmmmmmmm, wonder what he has?
The turn brings a 4, pairing me up, but a terribly low pair.
But, you know, he didn't bet...
And... What will he be thinking about what I have?
So I bet 250k
And he folds!!!!
I net 310k
Chip leader at this table, 4th overall. 1st and 2nd are way ahead but 3rd is still in sight.
23 players left in the tournament

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From:anshackles
Date:June 3rd, 2009 09:19 am (UTC)
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You lucky, lucky bastard.

Mind, in that situation, you were out a good bit anyway (190K?), if you'd folded. Presumably there's no way to tell if he was bluffing as well. Either that or he had the makings of a flush or something but didn't get it.

The amusing thing is that it likely wouldn't have made any difference if you'd not got your paired 4s, provided you'd still had the nerve to bet. I reckon a lot of poker is psychology and nerve. If you can sit there and make like you've got AAKKK when in fact you've got sod-all, convincingly, you can probably win with sod-all. Of course, is someone else really does have AAKKK, then they're in a position to be fairly sure you're bluffing. But how often does anyone get that sort of hand?



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From:oldbloke
Date:June 3rd, 2009 09:42 am (UTC)
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That one did all hinge on what he had to be thinking I had, when in fact I didn't have it, and that in turn stemmed from my crazy UTG raise with a bare A.
Or, given the point we're at in this tourney, maybe that's a legit 'move'. I have an A, and with my bet I'm saying you better have _something_ if you want to play this pot, and I'm prepared to give it up if you do come back at me. A manouevre based on my stack size.
So given my early raise, he's got to be putting me on A+high(probably suited), a middle to high pair, high suited connectors, or very high unsuited connectors.
After I checked he probably should have bet to find out where he was, but his stack wasn't huge and I guess he felt if he bet at all he'd be committed to go all the way.
But what does he think I have now, after I check to a flop with 2 Ks and 2 hearts? About the same range - nothing's been ruled out.
And what do I know about his hand? There's a whole range of things he'd have jammed before the flop that can be ruled out. Very unlikely he's got a K and is slowplaying trips, but if he raises me I'll fold. He probably has an underpair or Ax or connectors.
So when I bet, he has to wonder if I was the one slowplaying a K. And if he's still on a draw, the price is unnattractive. If he has an underpair, he has to wonder if it's bigger or smaller than the underpair I might have, and suddenly not like it much. Etc.
My initial raise was either daft or a clever situational move; his check on the flop is almost certainly an error; my bet on the turn was, I think, exactly the right thing to do. If he'd come back over the top I could still have got away from the hand.
You're right my pairing the 4 made no real difference. My turn bet was just "I know you didn't make your hand - give up". This kind of thing goes on much more in no-limit than in fixed- or pot- limit poker. I like fixed-limit, you can just play the percentages and almost ignore bluffing entirely. Almost.
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